History repeats itself: Jacinda Ardern to accomplish a Bob Hawke miracle on election night.

Thakur Ranjit Singh

Many harbouring reservations about Labour’s ability to unseat a three-term rule of National Party may feel this is a colossal task for rookie leader, Jacinda Ardern.

Among others, this means turning around a rudderless and crippled ship in such a short lap of time. Has this phenomenon ever been achieved before? No? Never? Impossible? Unhistorical?

Either you have a short memory, or were not even born when it happened.

JACINDA ARDERN: Next Prime Minister of New Zealand will bid farewell to Bill English from the 9th Floor Prime Minister's Office in the beehive in Wellington.

This phenomenon happened in Australia some 34 years ago. There, a new Australian Labour Party’s leader Bob Hawke, squeezed an electoral victory in just four weeks as the leader. He soundly defeated the siting PM Malcolm Fraser’s ruling Liberal Party coalition government in 1983. 

What caused this miracle for Labour? Australia was going through some tough economic times in early 1980s. At the time of proposed election in 1982, the economy suffered from high inflation, industrial disputes and high unemployment, accompanied by a prolonged drought. 

Opposition Labour Party then was led by Bill Hayden. Similar to New Zealand situation, they were also going through disputes, infighting, disunity and instability.  A faction of Labour Party wanted to roll Hayden as party leader in favour of Hawke. Prime Minister Fraser was well aware of the disunity in Labour, and took advantage of this by calling a snap-election.

Despite predictions of all political pundits and polls, FIJI PUNDIT predicts a repeat of history when a new Labour leader, Bob Hawke (left) assumed leadership four weeks before snap election, and went on to defeat veteran Prime Minister, Malcolm Fraser (right). Same will happen in New Zealand, with Jacinda Ardern squeezing a victory, despite all odds, and people ridiculing my prediction and faith in the uprising of the Millennials .

He prematurely dissolved parliament and called for election on 5 March, 1983, unaware that Hayden had resigned and was replaced by Hawke. Under leadership of Hawke, Labour Party reassembled, realigned and recovered. It gained its lost territory, credibility and support. They surprised all political pundits. On the election night, Labour Party experienced a massive swing and wrested back power.

Time Magazine of 14 March, 1983 ran the following self-explanatory story:
Voters bet on a chummy, charismatic new leader

Barely a month ago, was Robert James Lee (Bob) Hawke, 53, a fledgling parliamentarian with a mediocre record as his party's spokesman for industrial relations. Last weekend he was elected Prime Minister of Australia, leading to victory a listless, often divided Labour Party that has held power for just three of the past 34 years. Hawke and his Labourites ended the 7½-year reign of Incumbent Malcolm Fraser and his Liberal/ National Party coalition. 

Now, let us compare this 1983 Australia situation to 2017 election in New Zealand.

Leadership in Labour Party in NZ took place just some seven weeks before the election. The party had been going through instability and uncertainty since departure of Helen Clark - they failed to anchor the party with any leader since she left. Political good-fortune eluded them and they were in a free-fall with National Party gearing up for a historic fourth-term as the government.

And then a miracle happened! Very admirably, Andrew Little made a Hail Mary Pass to Jacinda Ardern in a smooth, non-controversial and unanimous leadership change.   And as they say, rest is developing into a history.  

The unsung hero and Queen-maker, Andrew Little who abdicated to ensure a doze of oxygen for Labour Party, by relinquishing leadership to Jacinda Ardern.

In the polls that have been taken since Ardern took over, they have shown one thing clearly - Labour’s consistent march forward, breaking new grounds in polls and preferred Prime-Minister’s choice. What Jacinda also brought to Labour was that zing, x-factor, and identity with the millennials –the new generation. 

The resulting Jacindamania positively echoes one cheer from her re-assembled Millennials- a knockout punch on the election night, with Ardern in driver’s seat.

The meteoric rise for Ardern is contrasted by a drop in support for National, their desperate negative campaigning, and boring Bill , contrasted by Ardern’ s positivity and charisma.

They say, you get a government and leader you deserve: It is Ardern's positivity versus English's lies, scaremongering and dirty -campaigning.

Media worldwide will run similar news story as the Time Magazine story above, after NZ election on 23 September, 2017. My prediction is that this Australian history will repeat in New Zealand. The new leader, Ardern, who took the driver’s seat just recently, would execute a Bob Hawke punch on Bill English. She will wrest back power, and spell good political fortunes for Labour Party and New Zealand’s vulnerable people ignored by National. 

The sceptics who consider this as a mammoth task for Labour Party in general and Jacinda Ardern in particular, are correct. However it is not impossible, and very probable, considering the tell-tale signs already evident. And this is backed by historical precedent. And it will happen again.

Jacinda Ardern - the Queen that Andrew Little help make

Yes indeed, history does repeat itself. It will eventuate in New Zealand on the night of election, 23, September, 2017.

Jacinda Ardern will execute a Bob Hawke stroke on Bill English, to floor him on the count- thanks to Andrew Little"s Hail Mary Pass.

But will happen to Bill English?

For those of you who have seen  "Back to the Future" should know that this would be second defeat for him on his run to be an elected Prime Minister. They will appreciate this NZ Herald cartoon. 

Hence, for Bill English, it is back to the....

[Thakur Ranjit Singh is a political observer, a media commentator and journalist. He runs his blog, FIJI PUNDIT, and lives in Auckland]

NATIONAL’S DIRTY CAMPAIGN

Thakur Ranjit Singh

National Party seems to carry the legacy of its past leader, recently Knighted Sir John Key, in copying him to win an election. The hallmark of National’s win in 2014 election was its indulgence in Negative Campaigning.

National’s campaign model was to use outside groups to deliver hard-hitting “mongrel –type” messages on behalf of the Party, while protecting the leader. 

The government machinery rubbished Nicky Hager’s claims raised in his 2004 book, “Dirty Politics” and Key won, largely due to a weak and divided opposition, and effects of negative campaign. (Read analysis of Dirty Politics in KIWI PUNDIT blog, parts 1 to 5. 

Since departure of Key, leadership in National passed to Bill English. National’s smooth and confident fourth-term run was rudely interrupted by Andrew Little’s Hail Mary pass to Jacinda Ardern. Positive poll results for Labour and Jacindamania have been causing uncertainty, desperation and perspiration in National Party.

National Party's smear campaign of discrediting Labour Party was well-depicted by NZ Herald cartoon of 18 September, 2017. This depicts how a scarecrow, usually a figure of a person in old clothes is set up to frighten crows or other birds away from crops. Here the imagery is that National Party is using advertisements of imaginary taxes to scare away the voters.

With departure of Key and the ‘hounds” of National Party being exposed and kennelled, the negative campaigning became obsolete.

Under Bill English, a new form has taken shape- Dirty Campaigning. This involves picking up things that are lies, borders on hypocrisy, using scare tactics and relying on negativity. You discredit opposition because you cannot stand on your own merit, spending all your energies and advertising dollars in smearing your opposition with information that is not even correct.

Their hypocrisy was rudely exposed by Corin Dann of TVNZ . Very cleverly he pulled up Bill English on Q + A (17.09.17) on National’s desperate attempt to discredit Labour. When asked by Dann if there would be any interest increase under National, English replied that no government could guarantee that. Dann retorted, then why National was sending lies in campaign flyers claiming that interest would go up if Labour came to power?  He asked, whether it was not hypocritical, lies and scaremongering, when National could not guarantee interests themselves?

Nicky Hager's 2014 book, "Dirty Politics" that was discounted by National Party as mischief-making. But it revealed how John Key had two-pronged strategy where his hired hounds discredited opposition, while he maintained good clean image, that came to be known as  the"smiling assassin"

English retorted that interest would go up as Labour would have to borrow more. He was again proved a liar and scaremonger by Dann who stated that National’s debt went up from 9% of GDP to 25 % and yet interest rates dropped. Hence, National was relying on misinformation. 

On the $11.7 billion hole, nobody could prove there was one, yet National was still using this as scaremongering in campaign. The other forms of taxation: inheritance, income and capital gains have all been shelved. And fart tax? But why were they still being used by National with negativity in Radio campaign. 

On water tax, there would not be substantial difference, so why are lies presented to people? Lies, and more lies. In a politically-motivated farmers protest in Waikato, we had a scenario made famous by Nigerian author Chinua Achebe. In his book, “Things Fall Apart” which I studied as school literature in my Fiji Secondary school, I still recall one memorable adage: “outsiders crying louder than the bereaved”. This was the case at Waikato protest, orchestrated by National supporters, but very conveniently, denied by Bill English.

Federated Farmers, who organised the protest where few of those who attended would ever be affected by such royalty.

Key (pun intended) players in National Party's Negative Campaign, as revealed by Nicky Hager's "Dirty Politics: From left-Cameron Slater, Simon Lusk, Jordan Williams, Carrick Graham and Cathy Odgers ( NZ Herald photo)

Of the 1.2 million hectares of farmland in Waikato, only 20,000 (1.6%) is irrigated, and only 15,000 ha (1.25 %) are dairy farms. Hence, the protest in Waikato was indeed like a funeral where the outsiders cried louder than the relatives of the deceased. The event does not escape the scrutiny that since it was organised at the home ground of Jacinda a few days before election smacks and stinks of Dirty Politics.

Indeed, some farmers felt threatened by a 37 year old woman and held a protest march, strategically in her hometown. For a moment, ignore the fact that many of those farmers have their own water supply, or never irrigate, hence the tax will not affect them. But the fact that the march started and ended  at the local RSA shows how  serious they were, and I suppose they had a good piss-up and enjoyable time after the protest, which ironically was called ‘non-political.

What is very evident in this election campaign is negativity of National versus positivity of Labour. 

Over the last nine years, National has so many skeletons in their closet, but Jacinda is too decent to use them in Labour’s ad to degrade them. If she wanted she could have exposed skeletons that John Key and Bill English amassed in National’s closet.

Among other, these includes: TODD BARCLAY, NICK SMITH, POVERTY, AARON GILMORE, ORAVIDA, NOVO PAY, GCSB, JIAN YANG -THE TANKMAN, ASSET SALES, SWIMMABLE RIVERS, DIRTY POLITICS, LABOUR BLACK-HOLE, DHB FUNDING,  SKY CITY DEAL, TEAGATE, HOUSING CRISIS.

But no, Jacinda is too decent. If she wanted, she could have arranged a union protest, and gone to Bill English’s back yard, as National supporters descended on Morrinsville. 

She could have organised it in a small town in the Southland region of New Zealand, located 20 kilometres south of Lumsden and 60 kilometres north of Invercargill. In there, she could have taken a dip in local Oreti River, and come with a ton of dirt. That would have been the clean Oreti River of Dipton, hometown of Bill English!

If she really wanted to be nasty, she would have prepared this campaign ad:

“What happens when a lying Foreign Affairs Minister misleads a sleeping Prime Minister, and equally intellectually- lazy Finance Minister, who pays $30 million dollar of your money as bribe to a Saudi Arabian middleman to obtain a trade deal that never eventuated? And that payment was based on legal threats, from a legal opinion that never existed!
Now, can you trust such an intellectually-lethargic Finance Minister as your next Prime Minister?“ End of Ad.

But you will never see this advertisement.

Jacinda Ardern is too decent to degenerate and descend to the gutter level that National has sunk to.

This ad will just blow away like National’s Fart Tax in smear campaign.

[Thakur Ranjit Singh is a political observer, a media commentator and journalist. He runs his blog, FIJI PUNDIT, and lives in Auckland]

THE UNSUNG QUEEN MAKER: WHEN ANDREW LITTLE STOOD TALL

Thakur Ranjit Singh

In 1936, British monarchy faced a crisis when King-Emperor Edward VIII, had to abdicate the throne because he proposed to marry a divorcee, Wallis Simpson. As a result of that abdication, today we have Queen Elizabeth II as Head of Commonwealth. This was when her father George VI took over from his brother Edward, and the Queen inherited the throne through that historical sacrifice for love.

Abdication by King-Emperor Edward VIII in 1936 created Queen Elizabeth II. Abdication by Andrew Little in 2017  created Queen Jacinda Ardern.

There have been other cases in history when such twists and turns of events carved out our history with renewed opportunities and changed fortunes. The coming generations in New Zealand will view similar anecdotal sacrifice and political history that took place just months before 2017 election.

After departure of Helen Clark, New Zealand Labour Party never really experienced stability due to lack of clear succession plans, among others. Leadership was like musical chairs, with Phil Goff, David Shearer, David Cunliffe and Andrew Little temporarily occupying the shaky chair.  It was always expected that the leadership change would spell better political fortunes. But with infightings, poor internal management, a wanting media and communications cell, inability to communicate clearly and a lack of charisma from the leaders, good political fortunes evaded the party. 

According to the polls, Labour was expected to lose the game, with election months away. They appeared to be in a death-spiral, with National confidently gearing up for a historical fourth-term. They needed a miracle.

And miracle they did get - with a Hail Mary Pass before the last whistle!

Best wishes after the ultimate sacrifice: Andrew Little greeting Jacinda Ardern, and wishing her all the best in the election.

Those familiar with American Football would know that a Hail Mary Pass is a very long forward pass made in desperation, towards end of the game. The ball is thrown as far as you can throw, hoping your player can catch the ball and win the game.

And the Labour team’s Captain, Andrew Little admirably made that long frantic pass. And the ball is caught by the new Labour Leader, Jacinda Ardern. She is now in a desperate run for political touchdown, with Kelvin Davis in the flanks, with a looming victorious touchdown.  

Andrew Little had big burdens on his shoulders. With election just months away, and polls really hurting Labour, he had to rise to the occasion. He thought, Labour would be in better hands with Jacinda at the helms, as she offered better alternative government. As a die-hard Labour man, he had to do something.

And he made the ultimate sacrifice - an admirable and unprecedented call. This came unexpectedly, very suddenly, but very decisively. He handed over the leadership to Jacinda Ardern. 

What a wonderful gesture, and an exemplary action that dashed the possibility of him ever becoming a Prime Minister. Very few would let that chance go by, never mind how remote the possibility. 

Andrew Little - the unsung-hero, the Queen-Maker

But like a true gentleman and a devoted party Marshall, he made the Hail Mary Pass.  This gesture gave rise to Jacindamania (also referred to as Jacinda - effect). And it created another history - that this Labour transition in leadership was bloodless, without controversy and without opposition. People who had seen enough blood in the past Labour leadership battles would have passed this leadership move as a Sunday school picnic.

Political Editor of NZ Herald, Audrey Young observed this appropriately:

“Ardern’ s elevation has been the cleanest transfer of power by any leader in recent memory, way surpassing that of Key  to Bill English last year, in which he faced a couple of faux rivals. Part of the reason for this transition is that it had no origins in a coup or scandal or undertones of a selfish decision, as Key’s had.”(Weekend Herald-6 August, 2017)

We salute Andrew Little - the unsung hero who brought good political fortunes to Labour, culminating in Jacindamania which will rival Bob Hawke’s miracle in Australia. 

Andrew Little's stands Tall, after abdicating, and making way for Jacinda Ardern

Former Australian Prime Minister, Bob Hawke took over Labour Party just a month before a snap election in 1983 and led the party to a landslide victory. 

And that historical Bob Hawke miracle looks certain to be repeated in New Zealand by Jacinda Ardern. (Read article on Bob Hawke punch by Jacinda Ardern, later in FIJI PUNDIT)

King Edward VIII abdicated in 1936, for his love, and created Queen Elizabeth II. 

King Andrew abdicated in 2017, for love of Labour Party, and created Queen Jacinda!

[Thakur Ranjit Singh is a political observer, a media commentator and journalist. He runs his blog, FIJI PUNDIT, and lives in Auckland]